Tuesday, 28 July 2026
The biggest fertilizer number of the week came out of a cabinet room in Delhi, and it will be read in Ruwais, Mesaieed and Sohar long before it is read in Indian fields.
Ten million tonnes, eight or nine plants
India's Union Cabinet has approved NIPU-2026, its first dedicated urea investment policy in almost 14 years. The framework covers 8 to 9 gas-based greenfield and brownfield plants with a combined 10 million t of capacity, each unit sized at roughly 1.27 million tpy, open to private firms, state companies and cooperatives. The commercial terms are the interesting part: fixed and variable costs separated, a return-on-equity band with a 12% floor and a 16% ceiling, and fixed costs converted into rupees after four years at prevailing exchange rates, which moves currency risk off the sponsor. Plants commissioned within five years of notification collect incentives for the following eight, with a possible guaranteed buyback. The fertilizer ministry claims savings above R250 crore per plant against the 2012 policy. EY India reckons every million tonnes of domestic capacity that displaces imports keeps $300 to $500 million of foreign exchange at home each year.
India has been the buyer of last resort that sets the floor under Middle East urea. Ten million tonnes of domestic capacity, if it gets built, removes a large part of that floor sometime in the early 2030s. Urea's last available print was 451 USD/t on 26 July. Delhi's own paper is candid about why the policy moved now: Middle East disruption made imports expensive and unreliable.
The Saudi plumbing is still burning
On that disruption. Aramco's Abqaiq processing complex, the eastern anchor of the East-West pipeline, took multiple impacts, and the Jizan refinery was still burning more than two days later, with a 77km smoke trail picked up on Sentinel-2 imagery. Both ends of the East-West line are now damaged, which is the part that matters for anyone moving barrels or thinking about sulphur availability out of the Eastern Province. Brent's last print was 96.78 USD/bbl on 26 July, up 6.3% on the prior session. Russia, for its part, is extending its petrol export ban to end-2026 while lifting the diesel ban, which tightens gasoline and loosens middle distillates for anyone buying cargoes into East Africa.
Copper stocks drain while the price falls
A further 10,525 t of LME warrants were cancelled on 27 July, taking net available stocks to 102,975 t and putting the exchange on course to hold under 100,000 t. COMEX copper meanwhile printed 6.3575 USD/lb on 26 July, down 2.4% on the prior session. Chinese refined copper imports rose 10% year on year in June despite high prices, per Morgan Stanley, an unusual pairing. Lundin has said its storm-hit Chilean operation needs two to three weeks to restart from 27 July.
Kinshasa keeps testing the franc
The Congolese Treasury opened a 50 billion CDF bill auction today, about $21 million, with 12-month paper maturing 27 July 2027 and no coupon disclosed; comparable issues have cleared at 9.5% to 10%. A separate $40 million dollar bond is planned, and the indicative Q3 calendar targets 300 billion CDF in local-currency paper. Commercial banks have been thin buyers all year, which the numbers explain: local-currency deposits fell to 11.7% of the banking system at end-June from 12.1% a month earlier.
On the tape
| Item | |
|---|---|
| Implats halts Rustenburg | Production paused after six deaths, independent safety review launched |
| Baltic Dry | 2,696 on 27 July, down 47 points, ending a three-session run |
| DRC reserves | Down $260 million in the week to 16 July |
| Gold Fields, Ghana | Tarkwa lease proposal filed; Damang lease lapsed in April |
| NextSource, Madagascar | Molo graphite restudy: 37-year life, higher costs, lower returns |