Risk comes off the oil and grain book
A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was reported to have taken effect at 4am Moscow time on 27 October, and by Wednesday's settle the energy and grain complex was already pricing it. Brent fell 3.6% to 112.51 a barrel, diesel dropped 5.6% to 1,473 USD/t and gasoline lost 3.1% to 1,111 USD/t. Wheat followed, down 4.2% to 220 USD/t, and sugar slid 4.0% to 428 USD/t. Some accounts following the talks describe the truce as a localised arrangement around Oleshky rather than a nationwide halt, so the scale of the de-escalation is still being worked out, but the complex traded as though war-risk premia had come off the table in one session.
A new minister for a tripled target
Zambia's President Hakainde Hichilema swore in 24 cabinet ministers this week, including a new minister for mines in Africa's second-largest copper producer. Government has reaffirmed its commitment to the 3 million tonne annual copper target built around the Mingomba mine, nearly triple current national output. The Zambia Chamber of Mines is already pressing for a "stable and growth focused" 2027 budget, which will be the first real test of whether the new minister's brief changes anything for operators on the ground.
Copper holds its own
While the rest of the complex sold off, COMEX copper rose 2.6% to 14,651 USD/t, a reminder that the metal is trading its own supply story rather than the broader risk tape. Peru's Antamina mine halted operations after a worker death, with no timetable yet for restart. In Chile, Codelco has relocated 74% of its workforce off the still-halted Andes Norte project, a story that has run all week without a resolution date attached to it.
Congo polices its cobalt informality
Kinshasa suspended the head of its artisanal mining agency for failing to prevent illegal activity, as the world's top cobalt producer grapples with a resurgence of informal digging. Cobalt itself was flat on the day at 34,620 USD/t. Separately, Italy's Webuild and Brazil's Odebrecht are reported in line to build the Lobito Corridor rail link that would connect the copper and cobalt fields of central Africa to an Atlantic port in Angola, a project that has been talked about for years and is now reportedly down to contractor selection.
Also on the desk
The World Bank now sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 on the back of Middle East conflict and other shocks, an estimate that sits awkwardly next to today's broad sell-off in oil and grain. Private equity firm Appian is targeting about $2 billion for African mining even as its chief executive warns that shifting government policy, not geology, is what is pushing capital elsewhere. The Baltic Dry index climbed 1.9% to 2,652 after touching a one-week low earlier in the week, and urea and DAP both held flat at 446.5 and 802.5 USD/t respectively.