2% in 2027, rising to 10% by 2037: Brazil legislates a floor under its own fertilizer
Brazil's Senate passed Profert (PL 699/2023) on 11 August and the bill now sits with President Lula for signature. It bundles a tax credit for domestic fertilizer production, a BNDES credit line for plant construction, and a mandatory domestic-content floor for fertilizer sold in Brazil, starting at 2% in 2027, rising to 10% by 2037 and permitted to reach 30% if supply allows. The context is a country that spent about US$15 billion on imports in 2025, covering roughly 85% of consumption and 96% of its potash. Domestic potash comes from a single ageing mine supplying some 3% of demand. The named beneficiary is Brazil Potash's Autazes project in Amazonas, 2.4 million tonnes a year of projected capacity against US$2.5 billion of initial capex, with about 91% of that output already committed on take-or-pay terms to AMAGGI, Keytrade and Kimia. Profert plus the Manaus free-zone regime would exempt up to US$190 million in federal taxes, trimming the pre-construction raise by around 7%. Selection rules from the agriculture ministry have not been published.
27,000 tonnes against 41,000: Zambia's small miners run out of acid
Small-scale producers contributed about 6% of Zambian copper in the first half of 2026, roughly 27,000 tonnes, down from over 41,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Government insiders put the 35% decline down to a sulphuric acid shortage, worsened by large mines selling acid for export ahead of local buyers. The large-scale tier had no such problem: 420,000 tonnes in the half, up 4% from 404,000 tonnes a year earlier. Zambia's political calendar sits on top of this, with Hakainde Hichilema declared the winner of the 13 August vote and Brian Mundubile preparing a petition against his swearing-in.
17.47 cents a pound: sugar takes the day's biggest move
New York raws settled at 17.47 US cents a pound, 385 dollars a tonne, up 5.2% on the session, the largest single-day move on the sheet. India is the story behind it: Uttar Pradesh M-grade ex-factory rates crossed Rs 5,400 per quintal with wholesale at Rs 5,800, both records, while heavy monsoon rain and wind across the state's cane belt have raised the risk of lodged crop. Capacity is being coaxed back on: Indian Potash Ltd is spending Rs 360 crore to restart the Badamba cooperative mill in Odisha after more than 15 years idle, and Andhra Pradesh has convened a ministerial group on arrears owed by its closed cooperative mills. Vietnam, separately, has begun rolling out a 10% ethanol blending requirement.
6.4245 dollars a pound: the copper squeeze loosens its grip
COMEX copper fell 2.7% to 6.4245 dollars a pound, 14,164 dollars a tonne, as traders delivered metal into LME warehouses and on-warrant stocks rose across Asian and US locations. Chile supplied the counterweight: mining output down 6.4% pulled national economic activity below forecast. Cobalt did not move at all, held at 56,290 dollars a tonne for a second print.
1 September: Congo opens schools around an outbreak
The World Health Organization has kept its international emergency declaration in place for Ebola in the DRC and called for a strengthened response. Education minister Raïssa Malu confirmed the school year starts on 1 September nationally, with adapted arrangements in affected zones. A suspected Kinshasa case reported in Lemba was invalidated after investigation, and health minister Roger Kamba, who insists the capital has no cases, has separately alleged that up to 20% of response personnel on the payroll are fictitious. In Ituri, the UN condemned an attack on a response team at Aru. The Katanga mining industry has moved its DRC NRJ conference to December.
Late ticks. Brent up 3.7% to 91.83 a barrel while RBOB gasoline fell 4.9% to 3.027 a gallon and ULSD gained 1.4% to 4.3408. Urea 390.5 dollars a tonne, up 1.8%; DAP unchanged at 795. Chicago wheat 683.5 cents a bushel, up 1.3%. Palm oil 4,873 ringgit, up 2.6%. The Baltic Dry lost 63 points to 2,815. Mali's first-half gold output rose 30%, running at or above its 43.2 tonne full-year forecast.