A conversation with the only analyst who always agrees with me.
Start with the Gulf. How bad is Hormuz?
Bad enough that the interim peace has effectively collapsed and Hormuz traffic is falling again. That strait carries the sulphur, ammonia and urea that leave Saudi, Qatari, Emirati and Iranian terminals, so any wobble there is a wobble in the delivered cost of half the world's nitrogen. Metals felt it first: gold and silver jumped as the fighting spread to a second chokepoint and money ran for haven. Fertilizer will follow with a lag, through freight and insurance before headline FOB numbers.
Meanwhile urea buyers are trying to leave the market entirely?
India is. On 15 July Delhi unveiled a policy meant to push it toward urea self-sufficiency, which is the polite phrase for weaning itself off the import tenders that have set global urea sentiment for a decade. If the world's biggest buyer genuinely shrinks its call on cargoes, the Gulf and the traders who move its tonnes lose their most reliable customer. That reshapes where surplus urea has to find a home, and Africa is one of the obvious destinations.
And the phosphate side?
Consolidating. Koch Ag & Energy Solutions and Morocco's OCP agreed to expand their partnership into a new joint venture, deepening a tie between the largest US distributor and the world's phosphate rock giant. On the potash flank, Washington's fresh tariffs on Canada carved out fertilizers, so North American growers keep cheap Saskatchewan potash while the rest of the trade watches nitrogen do the moving.
Copper. Everyone says shortage. Is anyone actually short?
Grupo Mexico thinks so, guiding to a mild copper shortfall this year on a strong US economy and AI-driven demand, alongside a 79% jump in second-quarter profit. The more interesting move is Chile planning a $100 billion push to find buyers beyond China, courting data-centre and diversified demand. When the top producer starts publicly shopping for non-Chinese offtake, that is a signal about where the copper premium is expected to sit.
Lithium looks like the opposite story.
It is. Prices sank to a five-month low as restarts revive 2027 glut fears, with the Pentagon wanting 16,000 tonnes at below-market prices and Beijing taxing the trade. Into that soft market Zimbabwe just added a freight rail option for its lithium exports, cheaper than the trucking that has clogged its corridors. Volume infrastructure arriving as prices fall is how you get durable oversupply.
Anything on the Congo file worth flagging?
London quietly restored normal UK visas for DRC nationals after nearly six months of restrictions, easing travel for anyone running Congolese business through Britain. And Panama is weighing a state-owned miner to re-open Cobre Panama, shut since 2023. Bring that mine back and you add a large slug of copper concentrate to a market Grupo Mexico is calling tight, which is worth holding in the back of the mind.