Five pairs of numbers today, each one arguing with the other half of itself. The tape was quiet in fertilizer and loud in gasoline, which is roughly the opposite of what the forecasts say should happen.
Forty-five million tonnes against a flat tape
CoBank's Knowledge Exchange put the arithmetic of the nutrient market on paper this week: the Middle East supplies over 60 million tonnes a year of fertilizers and raw materials, of which 45 million move through the Strait of Hormuz, and the region accounts for half of all traded sulphur and more than 30% of global urea exports. The report counts 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East hit or shut by the war, 49 plants across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh curtailed or halted for want of feedstock, and at least 20 Russian plants damaged by Ukrainian drones. Its conclusion is that prices stay above pre-war levels well into 2027 and beyond. The prints, meanwhile, refuse to cooperate: DAP sat at 795 USD/t for a second session, sulphur held at 1,410 USD/t (9,502.33 CNY/t) without moving a fen, and urea eased 0.6% to 390 USD/t. China's ban on phosphate exports runs through August, and the same report notes high sulphur costs could see it extended.
Gasoline against its own barrel
RBOB fell 9.1% in a session, from 3.1354 to 2.8506 USD/gal, or 1,018 USD/t. Brent gave up 0.5% to 87.27 USD/bbl and ULSD lost 2.1% to 4.1037 USD/gal, so the entire move sits in the gasoline barrel rather than the crude behind it. Diesel now carries a 266 USD/t premium over gasoline, a spread that rewrites the economics of any product cargo quoted as a blended parcel and flatters anyone long middle distillate into the northern autumn.
2.7 million tonnes against three million
The Syrian Grain Establishment says it collected 2.7 million tonnes from this year's harvest against a national requirement of 2.55 million, and its deputy general director stated flatly that there will be no need for wheat imports this season. In February the FAO had pencilled Syrian import needs for 2025-26 at 3 million tonnes, close to 70% above the five-year average. That is a Levantine buyer removed from the queue in the same week CBOT wheat jumped 6.2%, from 640.5 to 680 USc/bu, or 250 USD/t. Supply news elsewhere leaned the other way: Conab lifted Brazil's 2025-26 harvest outlook to 360.8 million tonnes on greater planted area, and Argentina's corn crop is now forecast at a record 70.5 million tonnes.
Copper's two prices
COMEX copper barely moved, off 0.1% to 6.591 USD/lb, which is 14,531 USD/t and still a world away from anything a Kolwezi or Kitwe seller sees. Antofagasta booked around $2 billion of first-half profit on stronger copper and gold, with the Los Pelambres shutdown clouding the year ahead, and Vale is accelerating its Salobo expansion on the way to roughly 700,000 tonnes of annual copper output by 2035. The world's 50 largest miners added $206 billion of market value in a fortnight. In Zambia, early constituency declarations point to major opposition parliamentary gains with official ECZ results still pending.
The Baltic against a new berth
The Baltic Dry index fell 3.2% to 2,844, its second soft session, while Bartlett opened a 2.2-million-bushel export facility in Illinois aimed at grain shipments to Mexico. Cheap dry freight and new American river capacity together make US-origin corn and wheat more competitive into Gulf-of-Mexico destinations at precisely the moment Black Sea sellers lose a Syrian buyer.
Elsewhere on the desk: the Catholic diocese of Butembo-Beni has suspended assemblies and funerals with bodies present as Ebola spreads in North Kivu, a measure covering both cities, and shelling attributed to AFC/M23 at Lumbishi and Chambombo in Kalehe killed five civilians and wounded four soldiers. Cobalt was unchanged at 56,290 USD/t and sugar #11 added 1.5% to 16.72 USc/lb.