The loudest signals this week came from opposite ends of the periodic table: phosphate rock repricing itself around Washington's trade politics, and copper cathode vanishing from Chinese warehouses. Here is where the numbers sit.
| Instrument | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Comex copper (Sep) | $6.55/lb | +3.3%, <2% off record |
| LME copper 3M | $13,851/t | NY premium ~$600/t |
| Silver | ~$75/oz area | +5% |
| Gold | >$4,080/oz | bargain buying |
| CAN, Germany | €340-360/mt CIF | softening |
| Yangshan copper premium | $103/t | 16-month high |
Fertilizer money moves toward Morocco and North America
Koch and OCP have deepened their Jorf Lasfar tie-up, with Koch buying into Jorf Fertilizers Company I, a 1.2 million tpy phosphate plant, to form a second 50/50 venture alongside Kofert. Combined capacity across the two ventures now runs to roughly 2.5 million tpy, and the stated target is customers "including in North America." The timing is not accidental: the US administration has temporarily suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, opening a lane for OCP tonnes to land with American farmers. Expect Jorf phosphate to tilt west, which thins the pool available to everyone else.
On nitrogen, India on 15 July unveiled a policy aimed at domestic urea self-sufficiency, a slow-burn shift for the world's largest urea importer that eventually removes a big buyer from the seaborne market. Building capacity elsewhere continues regardless: Tecnimont won EPC and start-up work for a large Argentine complex, KBR supplied ammonia technology to Pampa Energía in Argentina, and Malawi cleared the Mulalo Granular plant in Dowa District for operations.
Against that build-out sits the Gulf. A tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, and mediators floated a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire, with Hormuz traffic falling. Roughly a fifth of traded urea and the bulk of merchant sulphur transit that water. Nothing has been forced yet, and freight and prilled urea premiums out of the Arabian Gulf are the gauges to watch.
Copper's physical tell, and the corridor stories
The copper move is a genuine squeeze, not a headline. Comex sits within 2% of June's record, the New York premium over LME doubled to nearly $600/t on renewed tariff bets, and Chinese tightness is flashing on two dials at once: the Shanghai spot premium jumped from zero to a 14-month high in a week, and deliverable SHFE stocks have collapsed 82% since early May. Earth-i's satellite index read 16% of global smelter capacity idle in Q2, with Chile at 25.4%, the worst since 2019. Silver rode the coattails up 5%.
Chile's supply side took a physical hit too. A deadly winter storm severed a key mining highway and flooded arid regions, halting Lundin's Caserones and slowing Candelaria, though Lundin kept its 2026 guidance intact.
Two corridor items worth logging. In DRC, Manono is entering lithium production, a project long stalled by legal fights (Actualité.cd). And Zimbabwe added a freight-rail option to its lithium export gateway, with National Railways of Zimbabwe partnering the Beitbridge Bulawayo Railway, another sign Southern African battery-metal volumes are outgrowing their trucks.