Tuesday, 21 July 2026
The copper story has stopped being about forecasts and started being about physical metal that nobody can find. Comex September copper jumped 3.3% to $6.55 a pound ($14,440 a tonne), less than 2% off June's record, while LME three-month rose 1.7% to $13,851. New York now trades nearly $600 a tonne over London, double Monday's gap, as traders rebuild bets that the White House waves through the phased refined-copper tariff (15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028).
China is doing the pulling. The Shanghai spot premium over futures went from zero a week ago to 435 yuan ($61) a tonne, highest since May 2025. The Yangshan import premium hit $103, up from $20 in January. SHFE deliverable stocks have collapsed 82% since early May; LME inventories are down 28%, and of the 296,625 tonnes left in the LME system, 166,025 (56%) sit on cancelled warrants heading for the door. Cash-to-three-month is nudging backwardation. (Mining.com)
The supply side is genuinely short. Earth-i's SAVANT satellite index read 16% of global smelter capacity inactive in Q2, with Chile at 25.4%, its worst since 2019, matching a 12.9% year-on-year drop in May output. Japan's 354,000 t/yr Onahama smelter, dark in June on record-low treatment charges, will stop taking concentrate by early 2027.
| Metal | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Copper (Comex Sep) | $6.55/lb | +3.3% |
| Copper (LME 3m) | $13,851/t | +1.7% |
| Silver | above $75/oz | +5% |
| Gold | > $4,080/oz | bargain buying |
Chile: the highway, not the pit
Prolonged winter rain across Coquimbo and Atacama has killed at least 10 people and severed Route 5, the Chilean leg of the Pan-American Highway, in several places. The far-north copper districts sit outside the storm track, so the damage is logistics rather than production. Antofagasta deployed heavy equipment to clear roads near Los Pelambres; Barrick lent a helicopter to Alto del Carmen; Codelco restarted Andina after a precautionary halt but reported power cuts; Anglo's Los Bronces runs with restrictions. Lundin shut Caserones and slowed Candelaria but kept full-year guidance. Watch late July and August for a repeat sequence. (Bloomberg via Mining.com)
Hormuz keeps the sulphur premium warm
Yemen's Houthis said they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile. Oil eased on a reported 10-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal, though the Gulf headline risk that sits under Saudi, Qatari and Emirati sulphur and urea flows has not gone anywhere.
Zambia adds power, Malawi adds fertilizer
President Hichilema commissioned the 100 MW Chisamba Phase II solar plant, a $75 million build, more electrons for a Copperbelt that is signing up KoBold's Mingomba and trialling Hitachi's battery-electric haul trucks at Kansanshi. (Lusaka Times) Across the border, Malawi's environmental regulator cleared the Mulalo granular fertilizer plant at Mchemela, Dowa, for operations. (World Fertilizer)
Nitrogen
A French government subsidy announcement triggered a demand spike for nitrogen in France, per Argus. (World Fertilizer) In Argentina, both KBR (ammonia technology for Pampa Energía) and Tecnimont (EPC on a large-scale complex) picked up nitrogen-plant work this week.