Thursday's tape, read through six numbers.
683 cents
Chicago wheat closed at 683 US cents a bushel, up 3.5% from 660 the session before, and the reason is floating in the Sea of Azov. Russian officials are weighing whether to fit civilian grain carriers with armour plating, sandbags, anti-drone mesh and mounting points for heavy machine guns, with mobile missile launchers and naval patrol escorts between Azov and the Black Sea also under discussion, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Shipowners and grain traders would pay for the hardware and the modifications. Azov moves roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports; Russia shipped about 48 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26. Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity is down by a third on its farmers' union numbers, the Turkish Shipowners' Association has advised members against calling at Russian and Ukrainian ports, and 136 merchant vessels have been attacked in the region in recent months. Futures touched $7 in mid-July, the highest since May 2024. Anyone quoting August-loading Black Sea wheat is now quoting a war-risk premium with a machine-gun mount attached.
The other Black Sea development is quieter and more permanent: the grain terminal expansion at Constanta is finished, taking storage to 180,000 tonnes. Romania keeps buying the option on Ukrainian cargo that cannot leave by sea.
6.44 a pound
COMEX copper settled at $6.44 a pound, up 1.6% on the day, while the supply side kept adding tonnes. First Quantum has taken direct site employment at Cobre Panama from about 2,350 in early April to roughly 3,000 by the end of June, about 1,000 jobs including returning staff, and has processed 2.1 million tonnes of stockpiled ore for a first 3,216 tonnes of concentrate. The 38-million-tonne stockpile holds around 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, twelve months of feed at current rates, with 2026 guidance held at 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes. The mine took more than 1% of global supply out when it stopped in late 2023. Glencore, meanwhile, produced 397,000 tonnes of copper in the first half, up 15%, and guided to $3.3bn of marketing EBIT.
2,632
The Baltic Dry Index fell 1.2% to 2,632, a four-week low, dragged by capesize. BIMCO's read is that El Niño is the next demand shock for dry bulk, with the Strait of Hormuz still central to the outlook after a three-week US-Iran ceasefire let transits pass. Brent sat at $90.27, up 2.2%.
Weeks, possibly months
Chile's mining under-secretary told the ProyectMin conference in Santiago that the frontal system has damaged roads and site access badly enough to halt operations, with recovery taking weeks and in some cases months. The same event heard officials set out permitting reforms meant to speed project approvals. Roads first.
4.2 trillion dollars
Cumulative global data centre investment could reach $4,200bn by 2030. The metals read-through is already in the results: Rio Tinto posted its strongest first-half earnings in four years and now takes about 56% of profit from copper and aluminium combined, crediting data centre demand, while Valterra sees potential PGM demand of 10 million ounces a year with AI among the drivers. In Kinshasa, the national artificial intelligence strategy cleared technical validation at a workshop run by the digital economy ministry, which is the step before it becomes policy.
438.50 a tonne
Urea eased 0.7% to $438.50 a tonne, DAP unchanged at $802.50. India continues to build its way out of the import queue: GAIL and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers have signed an MoU for a gas-based fertilizer project in Maharashtra, days after the Union Cabinet approved 10 million tonnes of new domestic urea capacity across eight or nine plants. India's suspension of sulphur exports, announced this week, still stands.
One number without a print: potash, where the free quote sources went dark on Thursday.