Six things went onto paper this week. Each one moves tonnes.
A letter to Washington, from eight Florida legislators
Eight Florida lawmakers have written to the Trump administration asking it to address sulphur pricing and availability, the raw material behind the state's phosphate industry and therefore behind every tonne of DAP that leaves Tampa. The price context is a market that has stopped moving: the Chinese sulphur print sat at 8,639.25 CNY/t on 12 September, 1,288 USD/t, unchanged on the session. DAP is equally frozen at 800 USD/t. When politicians start writing letters about an input whose quoted price has gone flat, the complaint is about volume reaching the berth rather than the number on the screen.
A damage assessment, Dnipro
A Russian strike on 10 September hit a section of Bunge's Dnipro oilseeds plant, a sunflower crushing, refining and bottling site. No employees were injured, and the company said it continues to assess. The USDA's attaché forecast for Ukrainian sunflower oil in 2026-27 is 5.5 million tonnes of output and 5 million tonnes of exports, a number that assumes crush capacity survives the winter. Buyers hedging that assumption have palm sitting at 4,814 MYR/t, 1,183 USD/t, flat on the day and looking like the cheapest insurance in the edible oils complex.
An FID in Riyadh, and a valve opened in Sluiskil
SABIC Agri-Nutrients has taken final investment decision on an ammonia and urea project, committing Saudi capital to nitrogen capacity at a moment when urea has gone nowhere: 450.75 USD/t on 12 September, up 0.50 on the prior print. In the same week Yara started operations on its Netherlands carbon capture project for low-carbon ammonia. Two different bets on the same molecule, one on cost, one on carbon accounting, both arriving in a market whose spot price has not rewarded either.
An MoU in Ankara
Turkey signed a memorandum with Russia on 8 September to import larger volumes of fertilizer, deepening a supply relationship that already prices well below Western origins. It lands the same week the United States escalated its trade fight with Canada through bans and new tariffs, which is the other half of the nitrogen and potash map. Product will follow the paperwork, and the paperwork now points east.
A $300 million drawdown, Lobito
The Angolan corridor carrying Congolese and Zambian copper and cobalt to the Atlantic expects to double minerals cargo after a $300 million draw on its US-backed financing. Kinshasa signed its own paper this week, approving ratification of three loan agreements worth 475 million USD, while Zijin put its cumulative DRC investment at roughly 6 billion USD. The metal itself went the other way: COMEX copper fell 2.8% to 6.548 USD/lb, 14,436 USD/t.
A filing with the Surface Transportation Board
Canadian National has filed with the STB on the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger, seeking expanded access to its network in key Midwest markets. Whoever wins that argument sets the rail economics under US grain for the next decade. Ocean freight is meanwhile drifting: the Baltic Dry index closed at 3,507, down 0.4% and at its weakest since 3 September on softer capesize and panamax rates.
Also on the tape
- Brent rose 6.8% to 104.61 USD/bbl, diesel followed at 4.7683 USD/gal (+4.4%), gasoline went the other way at 3.1198 USD/gal (-4.1%).
- Maharashtra's rainfall deficit has put 2026-27 sugar output estimates under revision; raws held at 18.15 USc/lb, 400 USD/t.
- Red-striped soft scale infestation has hit about 10,000 hectares of cane in Iloilo province, Philippines.
- The US Department of Energy awarded 73 million USD in grants for domestic mining technology and proving grounds.
- Fighting between the Congolese army and AFC/M23 at Bitoy, near Mahanga in Masisi, on 12 September.