Nitrogen buyers have spent eight weeks staring at a flat screen. India has just given them something to do, and the price panel has barely blinked.
India is back in the market for 1.7 million tonnes
India has issued its first urea import tender in two months, seeking 1.7 million tonnes of granular, a volume that historically resets the fob curve from the Gulf to the Baltic within a fortnight. Urea sat at 420 dollars a tonne on 3 August, unchanged on the prior print. Delegates at the Australian grains industry conference heard the same thing from the other side of the counter: urea stabilising, phosphate the line to worry about, with DAP holding at 800 dollars a tonne and Indian retail DAP pegged at 1,350 rupees a bag for the coming Rabi season, which leaves the import margin sitting on the subsidy rather than on the farmer.
Supply answers are being drawn up further west. ORNX has signed a preliminary land reservation agreement with the Moroccan government for a project at Laâyoune designed to make 100,000 tonnes a year of hydrogen converted into roughly 560,000 tonnes a year of ammonia, feedstock for solid and liquid fertilizer products. Signature took place in Rabat with MASEN and the US embassy in the room.
1,004.5 kilometres, 1.258 billion dollars, 13.7 million tonnes
Kinshasa's Council of Ministers on 31 July adopted the collaboration convention for the Dilolo-Sakania railway, handing financing, rehabilitation, operation, maintenance and eventual transfer to Mota-Engil Africa. The line runs 1,004.5 km from the Angolan border to the Zambian one, the project is valued at 1.258 billion dollars, and the stated target is to lift capacity progressively to 13.7 million tonnes a year, feeding the Lobito Corridor. Jean-Pierre Bemba, deputy prime minister for transport, presented the file. Concession maths aside, this is the first credible tonnage figure attached to the Congolese leg of Lobito, and it lands with COMEX copper at 6.479 dollars a pound after a 3.3% session.
Gold output at a record, cost at a record too
Global mine output reached 966 tonnes in the second quarter, up 2% year on year and the highest for any June quarter, with first-half production of 1,867 tonnes running 3% above the same period of 2025. All-in sustaining costs also set a record, which is the part that matters for anyone quoting diesel, reagents or acid into a mine gate. Southern African operators get a small break and a small bill this month: South Africa's August adjustment cuts petrol by 52 cents a litre while diesel rises, so haulage costs on the Copperbelt run stay where they were.
On the tape
| Line | 3 August print | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | 420 USD/t | flat | India in for 1.7 Mt |
| Copper, COMEX | 6.479 USD/lb | +3.3% | First Quantum posted 100,000 t of Q2 copper |
| Brent | 82.96 USD/bbl | -8.6% | Tanker flows easing supply fear |
| Wheat, CBOT | 639 USc/bu | -3.3% | Moscow convoying Black Sea cargo ships, Ukraine's July exports up 55% |
Potash: no print available on 3 August, free sources down.