Three Things That Matter, 13 October
The money RDC can't find
Kinshasa's central bank governor put a number on something traders in the Congolese copperbelt have long suspected: the country's mineral wealth isn't showing up in its own banking system. Speaking in Kolwezi, André Wameso Nkualoloki said the DRC exported $93.2 billion between 2023 and 2025, of which $54.4 billion was formally declared repatriated under the mining code. Foreign-exchange deposits in the domestic banking system over the same stretch grew by just $3.8 billion. He wants an audit of prefinancing arrangements and offshore payment structures between miners and their trading partners. A day earlier, the National Assembly ruled admissible a bill from deputy Thierry Mulumba Mpandanjila that would force local transformation of ore, arguing extraction captures only 15% of a mineral's value against 85% for downstream processing. The text now has ten days in committee.
Grain's new north
Russia sent a wheat cargo out of the Arctic port of Murmansk for the first time, with freight running at roughly five times the cost of conventional Black Sea routes. The detour matters because the US Foreign Agricultural Service now expects Russian wheat exports to fall 17% year on year, and Ukraine's own farmers union doesn't expect the country to clear 11 million tonnes in 2026/27, even as Nibulon alone has already moved more than a million tonnes off this harvest. Jordan's tender for 120,000 tonnes drew two offers and then closed with no purchase. In the background, Bulgaria's prime minister summoned Russia's ambassador after a drone strike sank a vessel in the Black Sea, and NATO's Mark Rutte says the alliance will adjust its Black Sea posture in response.
The capital chasing copper, and diamonds
JPMorgan said it will put up to $1.5 trillion behind US critical minerals, including as much as $10 billion of direct investment into supply chains and manufacturing. Eldorado Gold's Skouries copper-gold project in Greece was named among 46 mines handed EU strategic status, fast-tracking its permits and financing. Botswana is reportedly closing in on a deal to lift its De Beers stake toward 25%. Behind all of it, COMEX copper jumped 3.2% to $14,830 a tonne ($6.727 a pound) on the day, while the Baltic Dry Index slipped another 51 points to 2,801.
Unsettled
- Chile's Centinela strike drags on: unions say November output could fall by half if talks don't move.
- Chile's mining regulator issued new safety measures covering the site of October's fatal accident at El Teniente and comparably exposed zones.
- Sugar #11 rose 4.8% to $465 a tonne the same day Karnataka cane farmers blocked the Pune-Bengaluru highway demanding better prices.
- Lorient's commercial court rules 15 October on whether France's Fonderie de Bretagne survives without a buyout offer.