Six items off the overnight desk, in the order they will cost or make money.
GRAIN / BLACK SEA
Chicago wheat settled at 699.25 US cents a bushel, up 3.6% from 674.75, roughly 257 USD a tonne, the sharpest single-day move on the grain board this week. The trade press now describes the war as having entered a new phase aimed at grain assets, with strikes on storage and port infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine feeding directly into price and into food-security arithmetic for buyers who take Black Sea wheat as their default origin. North American supply is arriving on schedule by contrast: 1.1 million tonnes of corn were inspected for export on the Mississippi in the week to 13 August.
SUGAR / DELHI AND LUCKNOW
India's 2025-26 crop is now put at 306 lakh tonnes, 10.8% below the initial estimate, and raws answered: ICE No. 11 at 17.60 US cents a pound, up 4.3% on the session, about 388 USD a tonne. Uttar Pradesh's chief minister reviewed state stock availability and ordered action against hoarding and black-marketing. The food ministry rejected the argument that ethanol diversion is behind the price rise, pointing at July supply of 93.5 crore litres to the oil marketing companies with blending steady at 20%.
PRODUCTS / NEW YORK
Crude and petrol went opposite ways. Brent gained 3.9% to 94.39 USD a barrel while RBOB gasoline fell 6.8% to 3.0468 USD a gallon, about 1,088 USD a tonne, and ULSD eased 1.2% to 4.3848. That is the gasoline crack being taken apart in a single session against a rising crude, which is what an end-of-driving-season tape looks like when the risk premium sits in the barrel rather than in the pump. More than 15 million barrels of crude and products moved through the Strait of Hormuz with US military assistance during the standoff.
DRC / KINSHASA
The treasury returns to the domestic market on 25 August seeking 25 million USD in dollar-denominated bills at twelve months and 8% a year, part of a third-quarter plan to raise 400 million USD in foreign-currency paper plus 300 billion CDF of indexed bills. Public securities outstanding stood at 7,655.2 billion CDF on 29 July, up 130.5 billion in a week. The central bank's weekly conjuncture note has not appeared for almost three weeks, which leaves lenders pricing Congolese risk off month-old numbers.
GULF / NEOM
Saudi Arabia's 8.5 billion USD NEOM green hydrogen complex has completed construction, the largest single piece of ammonia capacity built on a renewable footprint anywhere. The nitrogen board it feeds into is firming: urea at 409 USD a tonne, up 2.3%, and Chinese sulphur at 9,235.67 yuan, about 1,374 USD a tonne, up 0.4%. DAP was unchanged at 792.50.
ZAMBIA / LUSAKA
Eleven civil society organisations including JCTR, TIZ and NGOCC declared the general election far short of free and fair, while the Christian Churches Monitoring Group said its parallel vote tabulation projected the incumbent's win yet flagged artificial vote increases at some totalling centres. Copper on COMEX was quiet through it: 6.587 USD a pound, down 0.3%, roughly 14,522 USD a tonne. Cobalt did not move at all, at 56,290.
On the tape
The first Moroccan phosphate cargo has landed in the United States since the duty suspension; DAP flat. Chile's Tarapacá environmental service has suspended evaluation of three projects, Collahuasi's Rosario and Ujina works, Cerro Colorado's extension and Punta de Lobos' continuity plan, until 1 September after the storm damage. Congo counted 5,290 confirmed Ebola cases to 19 August, with 2,000 ERVEBO doses deployed in Tshopo and school-term preparations slowing in Bunia. The Baltic Dry index rose 1.8% to 2,841. Palm oil held at 5,018 ringgit, about 1,243 USD a tonne. UEMOA posted a trade surplus of 6,318 billion CFA francs in 2025, its first after fourteen deficit years.